DC's First Annual Pre-Season Player To Watch Projection Project: NL East

The conclusion of L&B's first annual players to watch projection project, today featuring the NL East. Previous sections: AL East, NL Central, AL Central, NL West, AL West.

Miami Marlins
2012 record: 69-93
Player to watch: OF Giancarlo Stanton

We kick off the final segment with what could be the worst team in the majors this year, the Miami Marlins. The Marlins traded away their whole team, they have no one of interest beyond Stanton, and they might as well just be called the Miami Giancarlo Stantons. Hitting third in the Marlins lineup ahead of Placido Polanco (!!!) and behind Donovan Solano and Juan Pierre, Giancarlo does not have much lineup protection, to say the least. However, Stanton is so damn good that many project him to lead the NL in home runs anyways. He probably could have come close last year if he weren't sidelined for nearly 2 months with a knee injury. Stanton has absolutely ridiculous power (career .282 ISO) and has improved his average, OBP, SLG, wOBA and wRC+ every year so far at the Major League level. Marlins fans will have one thing and one thing only to get excited about when coming to the park this year, and it's Stanton.

DC Projection: .285/.366/.604, 43 HR, 101 RBI, 10.7 BB%, 25.4 K%

New York Mets
2012 record: 74-88
Player to watch: 1B Ike Davis

Ike Davis is a guy a lot of people think has the upside to give Stanton a run for his money at the NL home run crown this season. He had a breakout year of sorts last year, hitting 32 homers, but his .308 OBP and .227 average were, well, terrible. He didn't really get very lucky (his BABIP sat at .246), and really the only value he provided was from said home runs, as he finished with a WAR of just 1.0. I believe the BABIP will correct itself and Davis' average and OBP will bounce back, with the power of course still being there. Another reason Davis may improve is he is in in the final year of his contract, a year players tend to step it up in hopes of landing a lucrative multi-year deal. Davis could put up some gaudy numbers in Flushing and make the league take notice. 

DC Projection: .265/.347/.502, 39 HR, 96 RBI, 11.1 BB%, 23.6 K%

Philadelphia Phillies
2012 record: 81-81
Player to watch: OF Domonic Brown

Phillies fans are excited for Brown this season. After a few underachieving years, it appears as if Brown has made some changes to his swing and is ready to take the next step. He hit well in the spring, and while spring stats should always be taken with a grain of salt, Brown should eclipse his career slash line of .239/.318/.389 this season. Browns swing changes are similar to those Blue Jays slugger Edwin Encarnacion made in the second half of the 2011 year, and Edwin has hit .300/.389/.547 with 52 HR and 139 RBI in 868 PA since then. Brown will have to flash some of the 5-tool skills that made him a top prospect in the past this season or the Phillies may have to give up on him.

DC Projection: .268/.339/.442, 17 HR, 59 RBI, 9.5 BB%, 18.2 K%

Atlanta Braves
2012 record: 94-68
Player to watch: OF Justin Upton

I really like the 2013 Braves. They have a lot of exciting players in their lineup and a fantastic pitching staff. I like them in a wildcard spot this year as the Nats will probably win the division. Justin Upton is one of these exciting offseason acquisitions and is looking to bounce back this year in the ATL. Upton has a good lineup surrounding him and has gotten off to a quick start already this year. His career stats have followed a trend of up-year, down-year, and if these trends stay true, 2013 will be a good year for the younger Upton brother. After trade rumors swirled around the 25 year old for most of 2012, Upton should benefit from a fresh start and change of scenery as he joins his brother B.J. in the Braves outfield. Look for Upton to post at least a 20/20 season and help the Braves get back to the post season this year. 

DC Projection: .289/.368/.492, 28 HR, 87 RBI, 22 SB, 10.6 BB%, 20.4 K%

Washington Nationals
2012 record: 98-64
Player to watch: OF Bryce Harper

Ahh yes, we wrap up the L&B 2013 predictions with the phenom, the 2012 NL Rookie of the Year, the great Bryce Harper. Bryce is expected to emerge this year as one of the NL's premier players, and did not disappoint in his first game of the year, smacking 2 home runs in his first 2 ABs. The 20 year old already has a year of experience under his belt and will bat in the middle of a stacked Nationals lineup. A 30/30 season is not out of reach for young Harper, and the 5-tool stud could very well end up winning this year's NL MVP. Good defense, solid contact, baserunning ability, and pop in the bat, Harper has it all and he will be looking to take the Nats deep into the playoffs this year. 

DC Projection: .291/.362/.514, 32 HR, 103 RBI, 30 SB, 10.5 BB%, 17.1 K%

Players To Watch Recap!!!
Angels: Josh Hamilton
Astros: Chris Carter
Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes
Blue Jays: Melky Cabrera
Braves: Justin Upton
Brewers: Johnathan Lucroy
Cardinals: Matt Carpenter
Cubs: Anthony Rizzo
Diamondbacks: Aaron Hill
Dodgers: Adrian Gonzalez
Giants: Brandon Belt
Indians: Lonnie Chisenhall
Mariners: Franklin Gutierrez
Marlins: Giancarlo Stanton
Mets: Ike Davis
Nationals: Bryce Harper
Orioles: Manny Machado
Padres: Jedd Gyorko
Phillies: Domonic Brown
Pirates: Starling Marte
Rangers: Mike Olt
Rays: Desmond Jennings
Red Sox: Jackie Bradley Jr.
Reds: Todd Frazier
Rockies: Josh Rutledge
Royals: Mike Moustakas
Tigers: Miguel Cabrera
Twins: Aaron Hicks
White Sox: Dayan Viciedo
Yankees: Brett Gardner

DC's First Annual Pre-Season Player To Watch Projection Project: AL East

L&B's first annual players to watch projection project continues, today featuring the NL Central. Previous sections: NL Central, AL Central, NL West, AL West.

Boston Red Sox
2012 record: 69-93
Player to watch: OF Jackie Bradley Jr.

With David Ortiz on the shelf to start the 2013 season, The Red Sox are going with Jonny Gomes at DH, leaving rookie Jackie Bradley Jr. to patrol left field at least until Ortiz' expected return in mid-April. Bradley is a good defender and a patient hitter at the plate with a career BB% of nearly 15% in 615 minor league plate appearances. He will steal you some bases and has a likely ceiling of about a .280 average with 10+ homers given a full season. If Bradley can play well enough in the first few weeks of the season before Ortiz returns he may find himself in an increased role as the year goes on. Bradley Jr. has received some pre-season prediction support as a AL Rookie of the Year candidate for 2013, which is a realistic possibility if he is able to show the same sort of patience that he has in the minors and stick with the Big Club. 

DC Projection: 350 PA, .269/.340/.397, 8 HR, 41 RBI, 10.6 BB%, 18.0 K%

Toronto Blue Jays
2012 record: 73-89
Player to watch: OF Melky Cabrera

The Jays were among the most active teams in the offseason and brought in many talented players, and are set to field their most exciting squad in 20 years. Melky Cabrera was one of these players and was given a 2 year flier contract of sorts coming off a 50-game PED related suspension. Many people look for Cabrera's numbers to regress because of this but I am not so pessimistic. Melky has been consistently healthy throughout his career, never playing in fewer than 129 games in a Major League season, save for last year with the suspension. He is going to give you an average around .300, ~15 homers, ~15 stolen bases, a good walk rate and he doesn't strike out a whole lot. He'll be hitting behind Jose Reyes and ahead of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, 3 very talented hitters, so he should see many pitches to hit. I don't expect another .346 average like he hit last year, but Melky should give the Jays good production this year. 

DC Projection: .307/.352/.448, 15 HR, 76 RBI, 7.8 BB%, 12.4 K%

Tampa Bay Rays
2012 record: 90-72
Player to watch: CF Desmond Jennings

Desmond Jennings is a great player and I am a big fan. Last year in his first full season he turned in a .246 average with 13 homers and 31 stolen bases. This year he will be batting in the leadoff spot and should improve his peripheral stats with a year of experience under his belt. His average should improve, as his power and speed combination should raise his BABIP, which somewhat inexplicably has been around league average throughout his short career. With his excellent defense and baserunning he could be a 5 WAR player. His upside is probably a 20/40 player with great D in center field and the Rays will be counting on him to provide some of the offense lost in BJ Upton's departure.

DC Projection: .277/.346/.439, 19 HR, 63 RBI, 44 SB, 9.6 BB%, 19.0 K%

Baltimore Orioles
2012 record: 93-69
Player to watch: 3B Manny Machado

Manny Machado will be given the everyday job at third this year and the O's are going to run with him through the ups and downs. The 20 year old showed good pop in his brief debut last season hitting 7 homers and slugging .445 in just 202 plate appearances. He brings a little bit of everything with decent contact, power, speed and defense. The O's are hoping that Machado brings a more patient approach to the plate this year as he only walked 4.5% of the time in the Majors last year after posting a career minor league mark of around 11%. Machado is not going to be a fantasy juggernaut but his numbers are well-rounded and he will be a staple in the Orioles lineup for years to come.

DC Projection: .265/.319/.432, 17 HR, 68 RBI, 13 SB, 7.4 BB%, 17.5 K%

New York Yankees
2012 record: 95-67
Player to watch: CF Brett Gardner

The Yankees start the year in pretty deep injury trouble. They have no Mark Teixera, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter or Curtis Granderson. Really the only thing they do have right now is Robinson Cano, and Brett Gardner. Gardner strikes me as an underrated/forgotten player as he only played 16 games last year due to injury. It is important to remember though that he posted WAR totals of 6.0 and 4.9 in 2010 and 2011 respectively and the Yankees badly need him to match these production levels while their star players are out. He can take a walk, doesn't strike out a lot, plays great D, and steals a whole lot of bases at a good rate.  He won't hit for power but his speed will be an asset at the top of the order for a Yankees club that will desperately need runners in scoring position. Gardner will not have a lot of lineup protection early in the year but he will have to play well for the Yankees to have any hope at the playoffs.

DC Projection: .276/.361/.373, 6 HR, 49 RBI, 42 SB, 11.8 BB%, 16.2 K%