Thursday, April 4, 2013

DC's First Annual Pre-Season Player To Watch Projection Project: NL East

The conclusion of L&B's first annual players to watch projection project, today featuring the NL East. Previous sections: AL EastNL CentralAL CentralNL WestAL West.

Miami Marlins
2012 record: 69-93
Player to watch: OF Giancarlo Stanton

We kick off the final segment with what could be the worst team in the majors this year, the Miami Marlins. The Marlins traded away their whole team, they have no one of interest beyond Stanton, and they might as well just be called the Miami Giancarlo Stantons. Hitting third in the Marlins lineup ahead of Placido Polanco (!!!) and behind Donovan Solano and Juan Pierre, Giancarlo does not have much lineup protection, to say the least. However, Stanton is so damn good that many project him to lead the NL in home runs anyways. He probably could have come close last year if he weren't sidelined for nearly 2 months with a knee injury. Stanton has absolutely ridiculous power (career .282 ISO) and has improved his average, OBP, SLG, wOBA and wRC+ every year so far at the Major League level. Marlins fans will have one thing and one thing only to get excited about when coming to the park this year, and it's Stanton.

DC Projection: .285/.366/.604, 43 HR, 101 RBI, 10.7 BB%, 25.4 K%

New York Mets
2012 record: 74-88
Player to watch: 1B Ike Davis

Ike Davis is a guy a lot of people think has the upside to give Stanton a run for his money at the NL home run crown this season. He had a breakout year of sorts last year, hitting 32 homers, but his .308 OBP and .227 average were, well, terrible. He didn't really get very lucky (his BABIP sat at .246), and really the only value he provided was from said home runs, as he finished with a WAR of just 1.0. I believe the BABIP will correct itself and Davis' average and OBP will bounce back, with the power of course still being there. Another reason Davis may improve is he is in in the final year of his contract, a year players tend to step it up in hopes of landing a lucrative multi-year deal. Davis could put up some gaudy numbers in Flushing and make the league take notice. 

DC Projection: .265/.347/.502, 39 HR, 96 RBI, 11.1 BB%, 23.6 K%

Philadelphia Phillies
2012 record: 81-81
Player to watch: OF Domonic Brown

Phillies fans are excited for Brown this season. After a few underachieving years, it appears as if Brown has made some changes to his swing and is ready to take the next step. He hit well in the spring, and while spring stats should always be taken with a grain of salt, Brown should eclipse his career slash line of .239/.318/.389 this season. Browns swing changes are similar to those Blue Jays slugger Edwin Encarnacion made in the second half of the 2011 year, and Edwin has hit .300/.389/.547 with 52 HR and 139 RBI in 868 PA since then. Brown will have to flash some of the 5-tool skills that made him a top prospect in the past this season or the Phillies may have to give up on him.

DC Projection: .268/.339/.442, 17 HR, 59 RBI, 9.5 BB%, 18.2 K%

Atlanta Braves
2012 record: 94-68
Player to watch: OF Justin Upton

I really like the 2013 Braves. They have a lot of exciting players in their lineup and a fantastic pitching staff. I like them in a wildcard spot this year as the Nats will probably win the division. Justin Upton is one of these exciting offseason acquisitions and is looking to bounce back this year in the ATL. Upton has a good lineup surrounding him and has gotten off to a quick start already this year. His career stats have followed a trend of up-year, down-year, and if these trends stay true, 2013 will be a good year for the younger Upton brother. After trade rumors swirled around the 25 year old for most of 2012, Upton should benefit from a fresh start and change of scenery as he joins his brother B.J. in the Braves outfield. Look for Upton to post at least a 20/20 season and help the Braves get back to the post season this year. 

DC Projection: .289/.368/.492, 28 HR, 87 RBI, 22 SB, 10.6 BB%, 20.4 K%

Washington Nationals
2012 record: 98-64
Player to watch: OF Bryce Harper

Ahh yes, we wrap up the L&B 2013 predictions with the phenom, the 2012 NL Rookie of the Year, the great Bryce Harper. Bryce is expected to emerge this year as one of the NL's premier players, and did not disappoint in his first game of the year, smacking 2 home runs in his first 2 ABs. The 20 year old already has a year of experience under his belt and will bat in the middle of a stacked Nationals lineup. A 30/30 season is not out of reach for young Harper, and the 5-tool stud could very well end up winning this year's NL MVP. Good defense, solid contact, baserunning ability, and pop in the bat, Harper has it all and he will be looking to take the Nats deep into the playoffs this year. 

DC Projection: .291/.362/.514, 32 HR, 103 RBI, 30 SB, 10.5 BB%, 17.1 K%

Players To Watch Recap!!!
Angels: Josh Hamilton
Astros: Chris Carter
Athletics: Yoenis Cespedes
Blue Jays: Melky Cabrera
Braves: Justin Upton
Brewers: Johnathan Lucroy
Cardinals: Matt Carpenter
Cubs: Anthony Rizzo
Diamondbacks: Aaron Hill
Dodgers: Adrian Gonzalez
Giants: Brandon Belt
Indians: Lonnie Chisenhall
Mariners: Franklin Gutierrez
Marlins: Giancarlo Stanton
Mets: Ike Davis
Nationals: Bryce Harper
Orioles: Manny Machado
Padres: Jedd Gyorko
Phillies: Domonic Brown
Pirates: Starling Marte
Rangers: Mike Olt
Rays: Desmond Jennings
Red Sox: Jackie Bradley Jr.
Reds: Todd Frazier
Rockies: Josh Rutledge
Royals: Mike Moustakas
Tigers: Miguel Cabrera
Twins: Aaron Hicks
White Sox: Dayan Viciedo
Yankees: Brett Gardner


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