My first annual players to watch projection project continues, today featuring the NL West. The first section, detailing my AL West predictions can be found here.
Colorado Rockies
2012 record: 64-98
Player to watch: SS/2B Josh Rutledge
Colorado had a rough year in 2012. Their pitching was terrible and they had injuries to key players Troy Tulowitzki and Todd Helton. Their pitching isn't going to be any better this year but they're hoping their run production will increase with their main guys coming back from injury. I like Josh Rutledge as being a big part of this offense this year. Last year the 23 year old Rutledge played a lot of shortstop with Tulo being out and hit .292 with 21 HR and 21 stolen bases in 633 plate appearances between AA and the Majors. He will be the Rockies starting second baseman this year and should hit something close to that in his first full season at notorious hitters' park Coors Field. He doesn't take walks well so his OBP will suffer but you can live with that given his power/speed combination that plays terrifically at his position. Rutledge is going to break out in a big way this year and establish himself as a top tier second baseman in the NL.
DC Projection: .290/.319/.450, 17 HR, 65 RBI, 4.1 BB%, 20.5 K%
San Diego Padres
2012 record: 76-86
Player to watch: 3B/2B Jedd Gyorko
With last year's Padres MVP 3B Chase Headley set to start the season on the DL, top prospect Jedd Gyorko (pronounced JER-ko) will make the team out of spring training, and fill in for Headley at third while Logan Forsythe mans second. Once Headley comes back however, the team will have to chose between Gyorko and Forsythe at second base, which I believe will wind up being Gyorko's job to lose. The 24 year old has yet to play in a Major League game but has raked in the minors at every stop, with 30 HR in each of the last two seasons. He profiles as a gap hitter with home run power, projected to be able to hit for an average in the .290's or higher. He reminds me of Rutledge in a sense, but with more power, less speed and more walks. Their home run totals should look about the same however since Petco Park plays as an extreme pitchers park in contrast to Coors. Gyorko is another great young infielder and could make a run for NL Rookie of the Year in 2013.
DC Projection: .272/.330/.444, 15 HR, 62 RBI, 8.3 BB%, 19.7 K%
Arizona Diamondbacks
2012 record: 81-81
Player to watch: 2B Aaron Hill
The second baseman parade continues! Aaron Hill though, unlike his counterparts in this article, is an established major leaguer entering his 9th season in the bigs. He had a resurgence last season in the desert at age 30, (he turns 31 today! (March 21, 2013)) rediscovering his stroke and jacking 26 homers while hitting a career high .302. I have had the chance to see a lot of Aaron from his time as a Blue Jay however, and I am not convinced. Hill seems to follow a pattern of having one good season, then one terrible season. In 2013 he is due for a terrible season. He has hit .304 in the desert since coming over from the Jays mid-2011, but with his age and inconsistency I can't see him putting up numbers like he has in his first year and a half with the D-backs. I expect him to regress in 2013 and have a frustrating season by his standards/career averages.
DC Projection: .260/.322/.420, 13 HR, 63 RBI, 6.2 BB%, 14.7 K%
Los Angeles Dodgers
2012 record: 86-76
Player to watch: 1B Adrian Gonzalez
I'll admit I had troubles picking a player to watch when looking at the Dodgers roster, as they all seem more or less like "what you see is what you get" type players. After debating though, I felt as though I could confidently predict a revival for A-Gone going into 2013 and here's why:
1. Though his home run totals have been down the past few years, returning to the NL West from the strong AL East should bode well for Adrian. His homers should increase from playing in a weaker division, and hitting in the middle of a stacked lineup.
2. He has been with the Dodgers for half a year now, and will get to start the year with a clean slate, not having to worry about the disaster that was the '12 Red Sox.
Gonzalez, still only age 30, should be able to bounce back to the elite form he was in from 2009-11 and put up another great season. But really, if he has a season like 2012 (.299, 18 HR, 3.6 WAR), its not like anyone is complaining.
DC Projection: .304/.393/.505, 30 HR, 107 RBI, 10.9 BB%, 15.8 K%
San Francisco Giants
2012 record: 94-68
Player to watch: 1B Brandon Belt
It's hard to believe Brandon Belt is still just 24. It seems like he has been toiling for years waiting for his full time shot and this year he will get it as the defending World Series Champion Giants everyday first baseman. The slugging youngster has hit well over his first two seasons with the Giants, but manager Bruce Bochy has never seemed to have the confidence in him. It's his spot this year and they are going to run with him, good or bad. I have always been a fan of Belt and I have long been frustrated with the Giants brass for not giving him a chance sooner. Though my projections for Belt are still bullish, they could be even higher if he played in a different home park, as fewer home runs were hit at the power-sapping AT&T Park last season than any other park in the Majors. Belt has good speed for a first baseman, decent power, and a fantastic walk rate, though he needs to keep his strikeouts down more to reach his potential. Look for Belt to have a solid season as the Giants look to defend their second World Championship in 3 years.
DC Projection: .283/.375/.473, 21 HR, 77 RBI, 12.3 BB%, 20.8 K%
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