L&B's first annual players to watch projection project continues, today featuring the NL Central. Previous sections: AL Central, NL West, AL West.
Chicago Cubs
2012 record: 61-101
Player to watch: 1B Anthony Rizzo
After being traded a few times and a cup of coffee with the Padres in 2011, Anthony Rizzo was called up to the Cubs big league squad from AAA in late-June last year and tore the cover off the ball for the remainder of the year, finishing 2012 with 15 homers and a .349 wOBA in 368 plate appearances. Rizzo will get full time reps at 1B this year and will bat third in the order as the Cubs likely best hitter, with ample opportunities to drive in runs batting behind Starlin Castro and David Dejesus.The 23 year old lefty has a lot going for him, including an increasing walk rate, job security and a lack of strong left-handed starters in the NL outside of Cole Hamels and Clayton Kershaw. All signs point to a great season for Rizzo in a year in which the Cubs will attempt to be competitive again.
DC Projection: .280/.352/.509, 30 HR, 91 RBI, 8.9 BB%, 19.5 K%
Pittsburgh Pirates
2012 record: 79-83
Player to watch: OF Starling Marte
Young Starling Marte will start the year as the Pirates starting left fielder and leadoff batter. The 24 year old Dominican native brings his power/speed combination to a team that has not posted a winning season since the final year they had Barry Bonds, which also happens to be the year I was born (1992). Key to Marte's success will be his ability to make contact and keep his strikeout rate down, as his speed should help him maintain a high BABIP and in turn raise his average if he's able to put the ball in play. Should he post a K% closer to 20% than 30% (27.5% in 182 plate appearances with the Pirates last year), he has the potential to hit 15 homers and steal 30 bases while hitting in the high .200's, which I'm sure the Pirates would be happy with out of their leadoff guy. His speed is fantastic (13 triples in under 400 PA at AAA last year) and will help raise his slugging%. Fangraphs' Mike Podhorzer predicted he will lead the NL in stolen bases, which isn't unreasonable if he can get on base enough.
DC Projection: .275/.321/.448, 14 HR, 60 RBI, 35 SB, 5.0 BB%, 22.2 K%
Milwaukee Brewers
2012 record: 83-79
Player to watch: C Jonathan Lucroy
Lucroy is tough to predict, as the he missed significant time last year due to injury, and the Brewers' other fine young catcher Martin Maldonado may cut into his playing time. Perhaps one may be traded, maybe one gets hurt, maybe one plays his way into the full time starting role, but for now Lucroy is penciled in as the Brewers starting catcher. The peripherals look good: his K% was down 9% in 2012 compared to his 2011 mark, his AVG, OBP, SLG, and WAR were all up, and he had almost identical HR, RBI and runs scored totals in 122 less plate appearances. Lucroy is an underrated player who looks to be on the upswing, but his playing time will depend on his health, and the success of Maldonado. My projection is dependent on Lucroy playing full time and getting approximately 500 PA.
DC Projection: .291/.350/.449, 17 HR, 69 RBI, 7.6 BB%, 14.2 K%
St. Louis Cardinals
2012 record: 88-74
Player to watch: UTIL Matt Carpenter
Carpenter is listed on both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference as being a 1B/3B, but he had reps at LF, RF and 2B for the Cards in 2012 and should start the season as the starting third baseman in the absence of the injured David Freese. Once Freese returns, Carpenter will be a super-utility guy, able to play almost every position. Carpenter is a great guy to have on your team. He is going to hit for a good average, get on base, play solid D, take a walk, and not strikeout a whole lot. Depending on injuries, he may wind up with around 500 PAs this year which could, optimistically, translate to ~15 homers. Although his numbers aren't going to blow anyone away, Carpenter is the solid type of player the Cards love and provides them with depth at a handful of positions along with some great discipline and a bit of pop.
DC Projection: .288/.370/.439, 11 HR, 59 RBI, 11.4 BB%, 17.8 K%
Cincinnati Reds
2012 record: 97-65
Player to watch: 3B Todd Frazier
Frazier had an impressive rookie campaign in 2012, finishing 3rd in NL Rookie of the Year voting, and posting in the top 10 among Major League third basemen in wOBA and isolated power. Scott Rolen is gone, so Frazier is going to see about 550-600 plate appearances this year in a good lineup, in a good hitters park. Turning 27 and entering his prime, the extreme fly-ball hitting Frazier looks like he could be on the verge of a breakout. Frazier is a guy that could hit 25+ dingers if he made more contact with the ball but his high K% doesn't look like it's about to drop anytime soon. I still think Frazier doesn't get as much credit as he should and my prediction for him looks a little more bullish than others.
DC Projection: .275/.333/.487, 23 HR, 72 RBI, 7.9 BB%, 23.5 K%
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